According to NALEO Educational Fund analysis, more than
13.1 million Latinos ARE EXPECTED TO CAST BALLOTS
This would mark a 17% increase in turnout and 8.7% increase in the Latino share of the vote from 2012.
In the 2012 Election, Approximately 11.2 million Latinos voted, an increase of 1.4 million voters – or 15% - from November 2008. The Latino share of the vote grew from 7.4% in 2008 to 8.4% in 2012.
The NALEO Educational Fund derived our projection of the Latino vote in Election 2016 by using a statistical modeling approach that takes into account trends in Latino voter turnout in the last several relevant Presidential election cycles. We determined Latino voter turnout in those cycles from Current Population Survey data presented in the U.S. Census Bureau reports, Voting and Registration in the Elections of November 2000-2012. Because the projection is based on past voting trends, it does not take into account the potential increase or decrease in Latino turnout that could result from the growth in Latino naturalizations, the saliency of various issues in the public dialogue during the 2016 Presidential contests, more robust voter engagement efforts, restrictive voter registration and voting laws, or other factors.